| March 13, 2010 "URGENT" SALMON SEASON I have heard many rumors, reports and speculations for the upcoming salmon season and there is an issue that really disturbs me. There is a small group of guides and charter boat captains trying to overturn the PFMC and NOAA's recommendation to open a season on salmon this year based on jack counts from 2009. PFMC predicts 245,000 salmon to return this year that is around the 39 year average for the central valley. First of all I understand their concern and respect them as colleagues, the problem is they're all basing their opinions on CA dept of fish and game's salmon "count". I use that term lightly as the only count DFG did last year was how many fish returned to the hatcheries. Many are worried about PFMC's forecast number but all seem to trust CA DFG's number with their livelihoods. However, I don't think they realize that by asking for it to stay closed for good measure, they are in fact asking for it to be closed forever and no one will be able to fish for salmon for a long time (i will get to that later in my report). Even though three out of four hatcheries saw big increases in numbers in 2009 up to 143% in fact (American river). CA DFG came up with a number 39,000 I would not even call a guesstimate at best. With all the state budget crisis and furlows i find it hard to believe A proper salmon count was conducted in the Central Valley. It's not possible for DFG to get an accurate count given their amount of staff and funds. Here's why, CA DFG has primarily relied on salmon surveys from fisherman, guide logs, and commercial passengers vessel logs etc... To gain an "ESTIMATE" on how many salmon returned to the Central Valley. They have never in the history of CA had to deal with a closure until 2008 and 2009, and have no procedures or enough funding to make up for the lack of fisherman to estimate the total run population. Hence the "RUB". I fear with no salmon season in 2010 there will be no reason why counts won't result in a false low again as fish and game just doesn't have the funds or staff to count the 250,000 salmon we get on average to the Central Valley. If that happens I fear the Sac fall salmon will be put on the endangered species list, regardless of the true population. If that happens it will be very hard to remove them. Salmon will lose funding and interest. I did my own salmon surveys in 2009 and visited several spawning grounds on the Sacramento, Feather, and American rivers and saw a visible improvement overall from last year. Lots of fish jumping, spawning etc.. so I know for sure there was at least more than last year's 66,264 count. I came up with my own numbers and theory for our salmon complex as well as my forecast for 2010, and I will get into it below. The bottom line is the main causes of our salmon decline in 08/09 were management, hatchery practice, poor ocean conditions, habitat and water. The three fish limit on the Feather and American rivers should have been lowered in 2007. With the prior closures and press I think there will be better management. I hope some how DFG will be given a minimum percentage of pen acclimated fish as the lack of pen acclimation in 2005 was the primary start to the salmon downfall. In 2007 95% of hatchery released fish were pen acclimated for a total of 34,200,000 the highest in the history of the program, this along with all the rainfall we have received and better ocean conditions will lead to one of the best salmon returns we have seen in a while. 1st of all, DFG's salmon "guesstimate" for 2009 The percentage of hatchery spawned fish to natural spawned fish as a 39 year average is 16.2%. Ranging from a low of 8% to high of 29%, and an anomaly of 46% in 2005, when 183,301 were spawned in the hatchery out of 394,007 overall returned according to PFMC. Overall 16.2% average since 1970 of the fall run salmon will be spawned in the hatchery, this does not include 2009. The percentage reported by CA DFG in 2009 was 42.3% which would have been the number two highest percentage since 1970 with the previous second highest percentage being 29% in 2006. With 27% of hatchery fish being pen acclimated before being dumped into San Pablo bay in 2006, a year after they halted pen acclimation completely in 2005. I find it hard to believe such a high return percentage given the 39 year average of hatchery spawned to natural spawned and pen acclimation in 2006. Pen acclimation I took the top four highest percents of hatchery released in pens prior to release in San Pablo bay. I then took the bottom four as well. 2007 was not chosen in the model even though it has the highest value as it will determine the 2010 return and data will not be available for comparison until 2011. The percentages are based on hatchery releases and do not include wild population as that data would not be possible to forecast. This comparison theory is based on pen acclimation to over all return. These numbers are based on NOAA and PFMC reports. HIGHEST FOUR 2001- 65% of 32,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 21,125,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 283,545 in 2004 and 0.87% return. 2000- 60% of 37,500,500 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 22,500,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return in of 521,814 in 2003 and a 1.39% return. 1999- 54% of 27,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 14,580,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 768,388 in 2002 and a 2.84% return. 1998- 69% of 30,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen released resulting in 21,045,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 594,814 in 2001 and a 1.95% return. LOWEST FOUR 2005- 0% of 34,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return in 2008 of 66,264 and a 0.20% return. 2002- 4% of 34,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 1,360,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 394,007 in 2005 and a 1.15% return. 1991 0% of 46,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 135,182 in 1994 and a 0.30% return. 1990 0% of 44,000,000 of hatchery salmon were pen released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Resulting in a return of 135,631 in 1993 and a 0.35% return. In this theory, three out of the four highest pen release percentages resulted in returns more than double the 39 year average of 227,275. All four years resulted in returns higher than the 39 year average and higher than escapement. One out of the four lowest percentage years resulted in the lowest return from 1970-2008, and below escapement. Three out of the four years were below the 39 year average of 227,275, and three received the lowest return percentage values since 1990. One of the four years was above the 39 year average, this was also the only year out of the four that any percentage of salmon was released. With the lower percentage in the 2001 release - 2004 return, it is possible the 2005 return received a four year old stock from the 2001 release. The four highest pen released salmon years receive a four year average of 1.8% return value. The four lowest pen released salmon years receive a four year average of 0.50% return value. My conclusion is, as many salmon smolts as possible should be acclimated in pens before releasing. There should be a minimum percentage of pen released salmon smolts as DFG has had no policy in the past for having a specific percentage and pen acclimation has been sporadic. 2009 ESTIMATES 1. Based on a 39 year percentage of 16.2%, based on hatchery spawned to natural spawned. That would create a return estimate of 101,833. 2. In 2006 27% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen released. Resulting in 9,858,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. Based on the above average's, based on a low end average of 0.50% return, 177,500 salmon would have returned. 3. The three years with no pen acclimation resulted in the lowest return percentages, a average based on those years is 0.28%. That would give a return of 99,400. (Data proves that years with pen acclimation will return a higher percentage than those years with no acclimation.) 4. Based on the four higher years a overall percentage of hatchery released smolts is 62% with a return percentage of 1.8%. With a 27% pen acclimation in 2006 that would receive a value of 43%. Based on a 1.8% return percentage, 274,770 would have returned. 5. NOAA claims ocean conditions were poor for the 2005 and 2006 broad stock. In 2005 0% hatchery fish were pen released. Resulting in a return of 0.20% in 2008, the lowest return ratio in 20 years as data before 1990 was not available versus a pen release percentage of 27% in 2006. Based on the 2005 stock percentage of 0.20%, 71,000 salmon would have returned. Based on data from 1990-2008 years with pen acclimation would result in higher returns than years without. 6. DFG's 39,000 return number would have been a 0.11% return percentage, half of the lowest return percentage resulting from a 2005 broad stock with 0% pen acclimation. In 2006 27% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen acclimated. Resulting in 9,585,000 pen acclimated salmon smolts. In this report CA DFG's estimate has been determined to conflict with return averages, and has been determined that DFG's 2009 Sacramento river fall salmon return estimate has been miscalculated and conflicts with scientific data averages from 1970-2008. Based on pen acclimation data, average return data, no harvest and a hatchery return of 16,497 adult salmon in 2009. It is unlikely that any less than 71,000 to 99,400 returned to the Central Valley. Overview estimate #1. 101,833 estimate #2. 177,500 estimate #3. 99,400 estimate #4. 274,770 estimate #5. 71,000 Overall average from all estimates 144,900. (very close to PFMC 2009 forecast based on jack counts in 2008) FORECAST FOR 2010 In 2007 95% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen acclimated, resulting in 33,725,000 pen acclimated salmon. This is the highest pen acclimation value between 1990-2007. Based on the above average of high ratio of pen released salmon smolts a low side of 0.80% return would result in 284,000 salmon returning. A high end estimate based on a high ratio of pen acclimation average would result in a 1.8% return of 639,000. 2010 central valley salmon forecast 284,000 - 639,000 before ocean harvest. I see no reason the central coast ocean, Feather, Sacramento and American rivers cannot sustain a normal recreational salmon season. With a limit of 1-2 salmon per day with a quota of 4-6 per person per year. Capt. Brandon Beachum |
| Call 916-289-0432 to book a trip. Capt Brandon |