Feather,sacramento and american river fishing report

March 13, 2010
"URGENT" SALMON SEASON

I have heard many rumors, reports and speculations for
the upcoming salmon season and there is an issue that
really disturbs me. There is a small group of guides and
charter boat captains trying to overturn the PFMC and
NOAA's recommendation to open a season on salmon
this year based on jack counts from 2009. PFMC
predicts 245,000 salmon to return this year that is
around the 39 year average for the central valley. First
of all I understand their concern and respect them as
colleagues, the problem is they're all basing their
opinions on CA dept of fish and game's salmon
"count". I use that term lightly as the only count DFG
did last year was how many fish returned to the
hatcheries. Many are worried about PFMC's forecast
number but all seem to trust CA DFG's number with
their livelihoods. However, I don't think they realize that
by asking for it to stay closed for good measure, they
are in fact asking for it to be closed forever and no one
will be able to fish for salmon for a long time (i will get
to that later in my report). Even though three out of four
hatcheries saw big increases in numbers in 2009 up to
143% in fact (American river). CA DFG came up with a
number 39,000 I would not even call a guesstimate at
best. With all the state budget crisis and furlows i find it
hard to believe A proper salmon count was conducted
in the Central Valley. It's not possible for DFG to get an
accurate count given their amount of staff and funds.
Here's why, CA DFG has primarily relied on salmon
surveys from fisherman, guide logs, and commercial
passengers vessel logs etc... To gain an "ESTIMATE"
on how many salmon returned to the Central Valley.
They have never in the history of CA had to deal with a
closure until 2008 and 2009, and have no procedures or
enough funding to make up for the lack of fisherman to
estimate the total run population. Hence the "RUB". I
fear with no salmon season in 2010 there will be no
reason why counts won't result in a false low again as
fish and game just doesn't have the funds or staff to
count the 250,000 salmon we get on average to the
Central Valley. If that happens I fear the Sac fall salmon
will be put on the endangered species list, regardless of
the true population. If that happens it will be very hard
to remove them. Salmon will lose funding and interest. I
did my own salmon surveys in 2009 and visited several
spawning grounds on the Sacramento, Feather, and
American rivers and saw a visible improvement overall
from last year. Lots of fish jumping, spawning etc.. so I
know for sure there was at least more than last year's
66,264 count. I came up with my own numbers and
theory for our salmon complex as well as my forecast
for 2010, and I will get into it below. The bottom line is
the main causes of our salmon decline in 08/09 were
management, hatchery practice, poor ocean conditions,
habitat and water. The three fish limit on the Feather
and American rivers should have been lowered in 2007.
With the prior closures and press I think there will be
better management. I hope some how DFG will be given
a minimum percentage of pen acclimated fish as the
lack of pen acclimation in 2005 was the primary start to
the salmon downfall. In 2007 95% of hatchery released
fish were pen acclimated for a total of 34,200,000 the
highest in the history of the program, this along with all
the rainfall we have received and better ocean
conditions will lead to one of the best salmon returns
we have seen in a while.


1st of all, DFG's salmon "guesstimate" for 2009

The percentage of hatchery spawned fish to natural
spawned fish as a 39 year average is 16.2%. Ranging
from a low of 8% to high of 29%, and an anomaly of 46%
in 2005, when 183,301 were spawned in the hatchery out
of 394,007 overall returned according to PFMC. Overall
16.2% average since 1970 of the fall run salmon will be
spawned in the hatchery, this does not include 2009.

The percentage reported by CA DFG in 2009 was 42.3%
which would have been the number two highest
percentage since 1970 with the previous second highest
percentage being 29% in 2006. With 27% of hatchery fish
being pen acclimated before being dumped into San
Pablo bay in 2006, a year after they halted pen
acclimation completely in 2005. I find it hard to believe
such a high return percentage given the 39 year average
of hatchery spawned to natural spawned and pen
acclimation in 2006.

Pen acclimation

I took the top four highest percents of hatchery
released in pens prior to release in San Pablo bay. I
then took the bottom four as well. 2007 was not chosen
in the model even though it has the highest value as it
will determine the 2010 return and data will not be
available for comparison until 2011. The percentages
are based on hatchery releases and do not include wild
population as that data would not be possible to
forecast. This comparison theory is based on pen
acclimation to over all return. These numbers are based
on NOAA and PFMC reports.

HIGHEST FOUR

2001- 65% of 32,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 21,125,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Resulting in a return of 283,545 in 2004 and
0.87% return.

2000- 60% of 37,500,500 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 22,500,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Resulting in a return in of 521,814 in 2003 and a
1.39% return.

1999- 54% of 27,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 14,580,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Resulting in a return of 768,388 in 2002 and a
2.84% return.

1998- 69% of 30,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released resulting in 21,045,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Resulting in a return of 594,814 in 2001 and a
1.95% return.

LOWEST FOUR

2005- 0% of 34,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts.
Resulting in a return in 2008 of 66,264 and a 0.20%
return.

2002- 4% of 34,000,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 1,360,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Resulting in a return of 394,007 in 2005 and a
1.15% return.

1991 0% of 46,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts.
Resulting in a return of 135,182 in 1994 and a 0.30%
return.

1990 0% of 44,000,000 of hatchery salmon were pen
released, resulting in 0 pen acclimated salmon smolts.
Resulting in a return of 135,631 in 1993 and a 0.35%
return.

In this theory, three out of the four highest pen release
percentages resulted in returns more than double the 39
year average of 227,275. All four years resulted in
returns higher than the 39 year average and higher than
escapement.

One out of the four lowest percentage years resulted in
the lowest return from 1970-2008, and below
escapement. Three out of the four years were below the
39 year average of 227,275, and three received the
lowest return percentage values since 1990. One of the
four years was above the 39 year average, this was also
the only year out of the four that any percentage of
salmon was released. With the lower percentage in the
2001 release - 2004 return, it is possible the 2005 return
received a four year old stock from the 2001 release.

The four highest pen released salmon years receive a
four year average of 1.8% return value.

The four lowest pen released salmon years receive a
four year average of 0.50% return value.

My conclusion is, as many salmon smolts as possible
should be acclimated in pens before releasing. There
should be a minimum percentage of pen released
salmon smolts as DFG has had no policy in the past for
having a specific percentage and pen acclimation has
been sporadic.

2009 ESTIMATES

1. Based on a 39 year percentage of 16.2%, based on
hatchery spawned to natural spawned. That would
create a return estimate of 101,833.

2. In 2006 27% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen
released. Resulting in 9,858,000 pen acclimated salmon
smolts. Based on the above average's, based on a low
end average of 0.50% return, 177,500 salmon would
have returned.

3. The three years with no pen acclimation resulted in
the lowest return percentages, a average based on
those years is 0.28%. That would give a return of 99,400.
(Data proves that years with pen acclimation will return
a higher percentage than those years with no
acclimation.)

4. Based on the four higher years a overall percentage
of hatchery released smolts is 62% with a return
percentage of 1.8%. With a 27% pen acclimation in 2006
that would receive a value of 43%. Based on a 1.8%
return percentage, 274,770 would have returned.

5. NOAA claims ocean conditions were poor for the
2005 and 2006 broad stock. In 2005 0% hatchery fish
were pen released. Resulting in a return of 0.20% in
2008, the lowest return ratio in 20 years as data before
1990 was not available versus a pen release percentage
of 27% in 2006. Based on the 2005 stock percentage of
0.20%, 71,000 salmon would have returned. Based on
data from 1990-2008 years with pen acclimation would
result in higher returns than years without.

6. DFG's 39,000 return number would have been a 0.11%
return percentage, half of the lowest return percentage
resulting from a 2005 broad stock with 0% pen
acclimation. In 2006 27% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon
were pen acclimated. Resulting in 9,585,000 pen
acclimated salmon smolts. In this report CA DFG's
estimate has been determined to conflict with return
averages, and has been determined that DFG's 2009
Sacramento river fall salmon return estimate has been
miscalculated and conflicts with scientific data
averages from 1970-2008. Based on pen acclimation
data, average return data, no harvest and a hatchery
return of 16,497 adult salmon in 2009. It is unlikely that
any less than 71,000 to 99,400 returned to the Central
Valley.

Overview
estimate #1.      101,833
estimate #2.      177,500
estimate #3.        99,400
estimate #4.      274,770
estimate #5.        71,000

Overall average from all estimates 144,900.
(very close to PFMC 2009 forecast based on jack counts
in 2008)

FORECAST FOR 2010

In 2007 95% of 35,500,000 hatchery salmon were pen
acclimated, resulting in 33,725,000 pen acclimated
salmon. This is the highest pen acclimation value
between 1990-2007. Based on the above average of high
ratio of pen released salmon smolts a low side of 0.80%
return would result in 284,000 salmon returning. A high
end estimate based on a high ratio of pen acclimation
average would result in a 1.8% return of 639,000.

2010 central valley salmon forecast
284,000 - 639,000
before ocean harvest.

I see no reason the central coast ocean, Feather,
Sacramento and American rivers cannot sustain a
normal recreational salmon season. With a limit of 1-2
salmon per day with a quota of 4-6 per person per year.

Capt. Brandon Beachum